Winner of the 2016 De Groot Prize from the International Society for Bayesian Analysis

Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice.

New to the Third Edition

• Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling


• Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors


• Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria


• Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation


• Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation


• New and revised software code

The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

On the night of the 2000 presidential election, Americans watched on television as polling results divided the nation's map into red and blue states. Since then the color divide has become symbolic of a culture war that thrives on stereotypes--pickup-driving red-state Republicans who vote based on God, guns, and gays; and elitist blue-state Democrats woefully out of touch with heartland values. With wit and prodigious number crunching, Andrew Gelman debunks these and other political myths.


This expanded edition includes new data and easy-to-read graphics explaining the 2008 election. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State is a must-read for anyone seeking to make sense of today's fractured political landscape.

Key features of the book include:

• Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications.
• Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques.
• Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference.
• Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences.
• Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.