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Ray Dalio

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail Hardcover – Nov. 30 2021

by Ray Dalio (Author)

4.6 6,093 ratings

in International Economics

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“A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times

From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well.

A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.

In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.

Print length

576 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Avid Reader Press / Simon & Schuster
Publication date

Nov. 30 2021
Dimensions

15.24 x 4.83 x 22.86 cm
ISBN-10

1982160276
ISBN-13

978-1982160272
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Popular Highlights in this book

What are Popular Highlights?

Human productivity is the most important force in causing the world’s total wealth, power, and living standards to rise over time.
Highlighted by 3,366 Kindle readers
Countries with large savings, low debts, and a strong reserve currency can withstand economic and credit collapses better than countries that don’t have much savings, have a lot of debt, and don’t have a strong reserve currency.
Highlighted by 2,655 Kindle readers
From examining all these cases across empires and across time, I saw that the great empires typically lasted roughly 250 years, give or take 150 years, with big economic, debt, and political cycles within them lasting about 50 to 100 years.
Highlighted by 2,294 Kindle readers

From the Publisher

PRINCIPLES FOR DEALING WITH THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER

Product description

Review

“The book is a provocative read for those of us questioning where in the arc of history the American Empire resides and what may happen to the economy next. There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.”
—Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times

“Dalio’s impressive book . . . has, if not changed my mind, then at least massively shifted the needle on how I see cycle theories. . . . Dalio avoids most of the traps associated with cycle theories. The Changing World Order is jam-packed with charts, showing long-run changes in major countries, often reaching back centuries. . . . He manages to do what many successful investors writing books about their investment lens fail at: delivering something new and interesting without giving away precisely the secret sauce that fueled his success.”
—Joakim Book, American Institute for Economic Research

“Ray Dalio has a special talent for identifying the key questions of our time. In this sweeping new book, he marshals a variety of economic, social, and political measures to trace the rise and decline of nations. It is a serious contribution—and an urgent warning to the West.”
—Henry Kissinger

“An audacious, practical guide to the rise and fall of empires over the last five hundred years of history—with important lessons for the U.S. and China today.”
—Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University and author of Destined for War

“Ray Dalio has a unique talent for making important and complex issues simple. I was riveted by his descriptions of the cause/effect relationships that drove the last five hundred years of history and how they provide practical guidance for dealing with what is happening now. This may well be the most important book of the year if not the decade. A must-read.”
—Arianna Huffington

“A super provocative, super important must-read. It lines up a lot of facts to create a scary picture that’s hard to refute.”
—Bill Gates

“When Ray Dalio talks, I listen. His new book is remarkable in its scope—shedding new light on the biggest reasons nations win in the global economic and political arenas, and applying it to China and the US today. After reading this book, you probably won’t see the world the same again.”
—Henry Paulson

“Ray Dalio’s latest book should be required reading for everyone. It would be irresponsible not to understand what Ray has laid out, steeped in history, serving as a roadmap for the future.”
—Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO of J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management

“History is too important to leave to historians. Only Ray Dalio would have the brilliant audacity to attempt such a synthesis of the financial, economic, and political history of the world. Agree or disagree, Dalio’s book is essential reading to understand our times.”
—Lawrence H. Summers

“How do we learn from history so that we don’t repeat the same mistakes that have led to the downfall of nations? By reading Ray's book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. Ray shows us how history can provide a template to help guide how we might think about what comes next. And for those of us who might shudder at reading 576 pages, he provides an ingenious highlighted path that makes the book a shockingly easy, yet comprehensive, read.”
—Mark Cuban

“Everything Ray Dalio writes is compelling reading for the investor and the policymaker. This is an excellent, deeply thoughtful study of what drives the rise and demise of economic cycles and empires.”
—Tim Geithner

“Ray Dalio has an uncanny capacity to understand what is happening in the world and develop principles that allow him to prepare for what’s ahead. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order is amust-read full of insights into where the world is today and where it’s going.”
—Tony Robbins

“Ray does an astounding job of giving us an inspiring and thought-provoking experience by looking at the rises and declines of empires, showing how economics, culture, military prowess, innovation, inequality, and other elements interact. He leaves us with an improved perspective for thinking about very vexing issues such as the state of America versus China.”
—Jamie Dimon

Praise for Ray Dalio's Principles: Life and Work, Winner of the Axiom Business Book Award for 2018

“Mr. Dalio has long been an object of fascination. . . . His new book is more significant than the original list of principles: It is part memoir, part how-to guide. It is a deeply personal story, with Mr. Dalio wading into how he started his firm in 1975, internal conflicts inside the company, and strife early on in his career. The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving. . . . Underneath what may seem like a clinical, emotionless approach is something different and far more poignant: Mr. Dalio is preaching for individuals to have a sense of humility and introspection, an ability to open themselves to appreciate pointed criticism and use it to improve.”
—The New York Times

“If there was an ‘it’ book for businesses or careers in 2017, it was Ray Dalio’s Principles. The book, weighing in at nearly 600 pages, begins with the author’s own story, including the rise of Bridgewater Associates, Dalio’s highly successful investment firm. Part memoir, part strategic plan, Dalio uses his own history to provide suggestions on attaining success while always stressing the power of individuality and personal goals. This isn’t just a book for the power elite. Dalio’s highly detailed game plan focuses on what he calls ‘radical’ truths and transparencies, and are applicable to the careers of powerful CEOs, ladder-climbing executives, longtime grunts, and fresh-faced rookies.”
—Chicago Tribune

“Ray Dalio has provided me with invaluable guidance and insights that are now available to you in Principles.”
—Bill Gates

“I found it to be truly extraordinary. Every page is full of so many principles of distinction and insights—and I love how Ray incorporates his history and his life in such an elegant way.”
—Tony Robbins

“Ray Dalio’s market acumen is legendary, but it was creating and living by a set of principles that allowed him to reach the top. Everyone with goals and dreams can learn from Ray’s approach.”
—Michael Bloomberg

“I was surprisingly moved by it. I found it to be remarkably engaging. It made me think about life and how we all deal with each other in pretty profound ways. And Mr. Dalio’s own story about how he came to these principles is fascinating.”
—Andrew Ross Sorkin

“The billionaire investor has created the strongest culture I’ve ever seen in an organization—one that prizes radical transparency over politics and meritocracy over democracy. In his long-awaited book, he describes the systems that he has designed to shape meaningful work, meaningful relationships, and the world’s most successful hedge fund.”
—Adam Grant

“I highly, highly recommend this book. It has already changed how I think about making decisions in my life and in my business.”
—Tim Ferriss

“Principles had a profound positive impact on my leadership style—through living more honestly.”
—Reed Hastings

“Among a handful of philosopher-investors known not only for moneymaking prowess but also for their distinctive take on life.”
—The Wall Street Journal

“What makes Dalio compelling is not just his track record but the way he goes about making money, and the rigorous analysis he applies to understanding markets, organizations, the economy, and life.”
—Fortune

About the Author

Ray Dalio is Founder, Co-CIO and Member of the Bridgewater Board, which, over the last forty years, has become the largest and best-performing hedge fund in the world. Dalio has appeared on the Time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as the Bloomberg Markets list of the 50 most influential people. He is also #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. He lives with his family in Connecticut.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Avid Reader Press / Simon & Schuster (Nov. 30 2021)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 576 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1982160276
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1982160272
Item weight ‏ : ‎ 903 g
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 15.24 x 4.83 x 22.86 cm

Best Sellers Rank: #327 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1 in Economic History (Books)
- #1 in Macroeconomics (Books)
- #1 in International Economics (Books)

Customer Reviews:
4.6 6,093 ratings

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Ray Dalio

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Ray Dalio is the founder and co-chairman of Bridgewater Associates, which, over the last forty years, has become the largest and best performing hedge fund in the world. He is the author of #1 New York Times Bestseller and #1 Amazon Business Book of the Year, Principles. Dalio has appeared on the Time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as the Bloomberg Markets list of the 50 most influential people. He lives with his family in Connecticut.

Customer reviews

4.6 out of 5

6,093 global ratings

5 star		76%
4 star		17%
3 star		4%
2 star		1%
1 star		2%

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Top reviews from Canada

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Rildo A.

It works as indicated on the website

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on May 18, 2023

Verified Purchase

It works as indicated on the website

Helpful

François-T.

Super bien écrit, clair et concis

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on April 25, 2023

Verified Purchase

Surprenant que le prix de la copie papier soit plus élevé que le prix de la cversion Kindle!!!

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J.T.

Americans are not devils - nor are the Chinese - maybe we should try to get along?

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on March 18, 2023

Verified Purchase

Empires rise and empires fall - their lifecycles follow a pattern according to Ray Dalio.
It may be prudent for all to understand this before the US engages in another end-of-empire war.
There are limits to American power - war is not inevitable this time. Or have we still not learned?

2 people found this helpful

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AvidJosh

Buy it read it study it

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on February 28, 2023

Verified Purchase

There is simply no one else out there today writing what Ray is writing. He has studied the economy, the factors that influence it, the history, and the patterns through the ages. What we have here is the culmination of that work. It is as accessible as it is relevant and easy to grasp.

2 people found this helpful

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Pavel Music

A BEST SELLER

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on March 24, 2023

Verified Purchase

Espectacular world's economy sight

One person found this helpful

Helpful

Tosky Toskana

A must read for every sentient human

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on November 11, 2022

Verified Purchase

I have listened to this book at least twice as an audiobook but I decided to get a printed copy to help me see the graphs the author talks about in the book. I have started reading the book again in print and my oh my, it’s even better than the audiobook. Ray Dalio is a billionaire, he doesn’t need to sell books to make money so this is the real deal. This is a billionaire telling you how to win in these tumultuous economic times. Coming out of the COViD 19 pandemic and heading into an economic recession in 2023, this is the best time to read this book again. You need to read this book, your survival depends on it! I have also ordered his book on principles for navigating big debt crises. This is the master of masters teaching you economics 101, pay attention and take notes!

3 people found this helpful

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Yaroslav Pentsarskyy

It seems to be heavily biased and light on the practical principles

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on January 1, 2022

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I bought this book because I admire Ray's views in his book Principles.
I read Changing World Order twice, analyzing and thinking over many passages and charts.
Here is my short opinion:
a) the first part of the book "How the world works", I thought, gives an excellent overview of the history of the world, and the dynamics between world powers
b) the 2nd and the 3rd part of the book appears to show Ray's heavy admiration towards China with hand-picked evidence to support his case.
Here is why I think so:
a) In dozens of passages, Ray appears to focus on some negative dynamics in the US and not discuss similar negative dynamics in China.
In other words, Ray doesn't seem to compare apples to apples in the narrative.
b) When looking at the charts, Ray appears vague about the data on which some charts were built.
I couldn't judge the validity of the chart because I didn't see what went into the compound data shown in the chart.
There are so many examples of this in each chapter that it made me doubt the validity of 2/3 of the content I'm reading, let alone the conclusions Ray is drawing. A bit disappointed. I felt that I gained more from reading Changing Fortunes, which describes the history and dynamic between US and Japan economic relationships back in the '80s.

105 people found this helpful

Helpful

mihokosev

Interesting book and very logical!

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on June 10, 2022

Verified Purchase

Most of the reasons why nations succeed and fail are well known to most people with a decent level of education. What Ray Dalio brings to the table is a combination of economics factors that lead to shifts in the internal order of a country, empire and how are these connected to the social structure of the society.
You will definitely learn a lot and at the same time you will start questioning even more the current situation with the non stop printing money in order to "save the financial world" Sooner or later somebody will have to pay.

5 people found this helpful

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

Torchglow

Could have been presented in a PowerPoint

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on December 24, 2021

Verified Purchase

The book is usefully stating a very few simple things which are obvious when you know them. The thinking process behind the simple useful things is the content of the book, and completely unnecessary. The author recognised this by producing a “highlighted” text which allows the reader the skip the detail. Better to have produced a book with just this text…

A worthy contribution but over-wordy given the content.

31 people found this helpful

Anon

Author had 1 good idea which he has rambled for 100 pages. Don't buy book. See YouTube video instead

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on January 20, 2022

Verified Purchase

Author had one good idea - that there are cycles in history and the fate of nations, financial markets. He has rambled the same point, repeated, tried to confuse, confound the reader on this for 1000 pages.

A classic useless non fiction book. Not even worth 10% of the price.

Don't buy the book. See a 5 min YouTube video instead. You'll save time, money and what's more understand the core point easily, and better

Books such as these really only help the author and not the reader.

37 people found this helpful

Vayne77

I'm in doubt recommending it: putting economics to history: 1/3 is great, 2/3 is OK

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on November 6, 2022

Verified Purchase

"The times ahead will be radically different from those we've experienced in our lifetimes, though similar to many times in history." (p. 0).

"(...) there are many people, companies, non-profit organizations, and governments that look rich even while they are in the process of going broke. They look rich because they spend a lot, have plenty of assets, and even have plenty of cash. However, if you look carefully, you will be able to identify those that look rich but are in financial trouble because they have incomes that are below their expenses." (p. 107)

"Helping you understand this debt cycle so you are prepared for it, rather than surprised by it, is my main objective in writing this book." (p. 128)

Following his principles book that offered more insight in his life, his company and business, Ray Dalio offers a perspective on history and economics. Out of personal interest but also because it's necessary for his business to be successful he studied the last 500 years to identify any trends. He looks at the large empires: Chinese, Dutch, British and USA and analyses their rises to power but also their decline.

I like his non-biased approach in the first part of the book and how he tries to steer away from the populism (one of the symptoms described in the book) that emerges around the world. It also helps to understand why something like BREXIT was a poor choice but also why that choice was put on the table in the first place. It also helps explaining how the world reacted following COVID and how some of the powers are growing while others are in the decline.

The fact that in the chapter about China Ray feels he needs to apologize for just writing about it is sad and indicative of the times that we're living in. As a European it was great to see how a US capitalist looks at the opposite of the US. I admire that as much of political views is left outside although through the lines, I can read his disapproval of the Trump era and it feels this chapter is much more personal where many sources are private conversations. I would have expected it to be much more critical though and it feels he criticizes the US a little (there is much more to say) and hardly say anything that may offend China. It may have been best to keep the chapter either more factual or leave it out.

Recent events are described but the book must have been written just before the Ukraine war which of course opened the eyes of many to how things really are and not what everyone thought it was. I wonder how Ray's analysis would have been with this information?

The typology helps support those who need a concise version and those who want to read everything (and links are provided to get even more data). I understand he struggled with how to deliver this and it would have been better to release a 30-page summary for those in a hurry as it is distracting. The book is high quality with enough coloured charts to illustrate the points that Ray is making.

It's good but not great - if he had continued the style from the first part in the second and third it would have been amazingly great. Tip: if you're new to Ray Dalio I highly recommend reading Principles: Life and Work (or Principles for Success) first.

10 people found this helpful

Arturo Brillembourg

Understand the past to shape our future

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on December 5, 2021

Verified Purchase

I’m grateful Ray Dalio has shared his world view and his access to leading thinkers and valuable sources of data, to make me more aware and better prepared for what’s coming. I am also friends with Ray, and I trust him.

This book offers at least two major contributions.

First, the synthesis and integration of economic, social, and geopolitical history that presents a holistic view of how countries rise and fall. Leveraging his relationships with leading thinkers and historians, Ray gives us a way to understand the major forces, cycles, and paradigm shifts that can dramatically change the world around us. You would have to read dozens of well-chosen books to gain such an understanding, and you still may not have a comprehensive theory.

Second, the quantification of each major nation’s economic, cultural, and geopolitical health. With the support of Bridgewater’s multi-hundred-million-dollar research budget and team, Ray presents the key determinants of a country’s strengths and weaknesses through time, and relative to other countries. Seeing the most important long-term trends in charts provide useful perspectives that are unavailable elsewhere.

Here are some of my biggest take-aways.

Disorderly conflict is the pre-cursor to destructive conflict that is likely to be devastating for all of us. Both the winners and the losers of destructive actions are worse off relative to compromise, mutual understanding, and respect. As an American, I should not take for granted that I live in the most powerful country that has seen one of the longest periods of peace, economic growth, and innovation in global history. It’s not the norm, and if we aren’t careful, things could get a lot worse.

Invest in innovation. Both as an investor and as a citizen, innovation has been a powerful force for improving lives and driving economic growth.

We are likely in for a period of high inflation. The easiest way for the government to deal with high levels of debt is by printing money, using stimulus to spur economic growth, and keeping interest rates lower than nominal GDP growth. That is, to inflate their way out of debt. As an investor, he suggests avoiding long term holdings of cash and bonds. Instead, he recommends diversifying with assets that can do well in an inflationary environment, like highly dependable cash generating stocks, some gold (possibly a little cryptocurrency), and other scarce inflation-protected assets.

This book is a major contribution. I strongly recommend reading or listening to it. If you don’t have the time, at least read the first few pages of the introduction, the first chapter “The Big Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell”, chapter 8 "The Last 500 Years in a Tiny Nutshell", and the final chapter called “The Future”. I hope you found this helpful.

360 people found this helpful

Andmk1

A masterpice of economic and geo-political history

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on August 18, 2022

Verified Purchase

This book is written by one of the greatest macro investors ever. Using his knowledge and the expertise built up at Bridgewater Capital he’s decided to share it with the world. It certainly is interesting when you zoom out over about 600 years and see the cycles unfolding with rises and falls of empires. It’s also a masterpiece of economic and geo-political history which probably has no equal.

As Ray has compiled the data for specific countries he can show, over time, how their influence rose and fell, e.g. the British empire. He believes that these principles can be applied in the future and will therefore determine his macro trading.

The book showed me that seemingly invincible empires get stretched and eventually crumble and he correctly identifies the shifting tectonic plates between the US, China and others.
It’s a meaty ready but valuable all the same.

PS: If there was a reissue, I’d like clearer charts as some contain too many variables with subtle colour changes. I did like the bold type however, as that points to summaries rather than reading the whole text. I also liked the references to economicprinciples.org which is something that can be updated as things evolve.

4 people found this helpful

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