Having read the book twice, and taken some time to think about what Mr. Zeihan’s thesis is, my thoughts on this book are as follows:
1. The most powerful part of his thesis is his discussions on the coming decline in the population of the world. Countries like Japan and China as well as most of Europe are already in a state of population decline. The rest of the world is not far behind. The coming outcomes that he describes as a result of population decline are hard to dispute, however he has not discussed anywhere what impact AI/Robotics will have on addressing the coming shortages of labor.
2. The second major part of his thesis is that because the USA is no longer willing to be the world’s policeman means that we may be entering a period of lawlessness on the high seas. He says that only those countries that can project naval power beyond their coastal shores can protect their own shipping if for any reason anyone wants to impede them e.g. Japan has a long-range navy and could impede Chinese ships from reaching China by blockading the Straits of Malacca. China does not have sufficient navy to counteract this. India could decide to impose a ”transit charge” on any shipping using the Indian Ocean. Piracy? Privateers? He states that for any of these reasons, there will grow a desire to move manufacturing closer to the end consumer. He does not address very well how regional powers will/could pick up the slack and even more countries will have to participate in global policing. This idea that the USA has stopped being the worlds policeman and that international lawlessness will rise is probably the weakest of his arguments. But we shall all see!
3. Mr. Zeihan states that it’s agriculture that keeps him awake at night. If anything happens to the current world system of inputs and delivery of final product to the rest of the world, then there will likely be chaos and starvation. China will likely be the biggest loser since it has the longest supply chains for everything and lacks the navy to guarantee delivery of necessary inputs.
4. Peter talks about global warming in two areas of the book – Energy and Agriculture. However, it does not factor in his comments in other areas. For example, Finance – if New York, London and Singapore, all coastal cities, are underwater because of global warming, it will be hard for them to remain as global capitals of Finance.
5. Finally, one outcome that he predicted was that global supply chains will collapse and we have seen this come true with the onset of COVID. Peter is saying that COVID is just the precursor of what will become the norm going forward. Hope he is wrong
In the end, although his understanding of demographics and geography are indisputable, he has not taken into account the power of language and culture. Culture has always been a hidden power. For example, Japan has never had any advantages - no big energy sources like oil or coal; they are at the end of all supply chains; yet in spite of this the culture of Japan drove them to become a major world manufacturer and at times a world power. I would like to see a thoughtful and well researched critique of Mr. Zeihan and his thesis.
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