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David Spiegelhalter

Michael Blastland

The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death Paperback – Illustrated, June 3 2014

by Michael Blastland (Author), David Spiegelhalter (Author)

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Is it safer to fly or take the train? How dangerous is skydiving? And is eating that extra sausage going to kill you? We've all heard the statistics for risky activities, but what do they mean in the real world? In The Norm Chronicles, journalist Michael Blastland and risk expert David Spiegelhalter explore these questions through the stories of average Norm and an ingenious measurement called the MicroMort-a one in a million chance of dying. They reveal why general anesthesia is as dangerous as a parachute jump, giving birth in the US is nearly twice as risky as in the UK, and that the radiation from eating a banana shaves 3 seconds off your life. An entertaining guide to the statistics of personal risk, The Norm Chronicles will enlighten anyone who has ever worried about the dangers we encounter in our daily lives.

Print length

384 pages
Language

English
Publication date

June 3 2014
Dimensions

13.97 x 2.44 x 20.96 cm
ISBN-10

0465085709
ISBN-13

978-0465085705
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Review

“Amidst the numbers and stories on topics as diverse as infant mortality, travel, extreme sports, and crime, the authors examine just how all of this affects non-theoretical humans….The whole is seasoned with a dash of humor to create a work that should satisfy anyone curious about just how and when this mortal coil might be shuffled off.”
—Publishers Weekly

“Tackling a factor in matters ranging from personal choices to public policy, this book's British authors — a journalist and a Cambridge statistician, respectively — make risk easy to understand without omitting its mathematical basis.”
—Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

“[The Norm Chronicles] is a truly engaging and attention-grabbing narrative that guides the reader through a multitude of helpful and/or curious statistics.”
—Metapsychology

“General readers will appreciate this engaging exploration of statistics and their relevance to daily life.”
—Library Journal

“Commendable for its wide compilation of facts and figures—but perhaps even more so for the authors' deep sense of uncertainties around data, statistics, and evidence.”
—Kirkus Reviews

“Blastland & Spiegelhalter achieve the amusing feat of bringing mortality data back from the dead. Reading this book will, in all probability, add years to your life.”
—Kaiser Fung, author of Numbers Rule Your World and Number Sense

“We have a really tough time understanding absolute, individualized risk—until now. The Norm Chronicles provides a long overdue, systematic, and entertaining dissection of life's risks.”
—Eric Topol, M.D., author of The Creative Destruction of Medicine

“In the same manner that the bumblebee disproved the calculations of an earlier time's aerodynamics, so Blastland and Spiegelhalter refute a central tenet of today's science of risk communication: that the meaning of numbers defies the narrative currency of everyday reasoning. Engaging, enlightening stories of probability, they demonstrate, are the most reliable means for transmitting empirical knowledge of the dangers we face and how to abate them.”
—Dan Kahan, Professor of Law and Psychology, Yale Law School

“Blastland and Spiegelhalter's The Norm Chronicles is irreverent, poignant, insightful, and just about the best book about risk I've ever read. It's also a paradox—a book about numbers and probabilities that'll keep you hooked to the last page. That shouldn't be possible. Using master story telling and a large dose of humanity, Blastland and Spiegelhalter transform the statistics of danger and death into a celebration of life. It's a rare feat, but one that's as compelling as it is important. This book is essential reading to anyone who has ever faced the possibility of something going wrong, and thought ‘what the …?!' Buy it!”
—Andrew Maynard, director, University of Michigan Risk Science Center

“Numbers matter, especially in the face of risk. This book is a powerful remedy for a deadly affliction—innumeracy.”
—Paul Slovic, president of Decision Research, and author of The Feeling of Risk

“This engaging, entertaining book clarifies the complicated subject of risk, even as it manages to revel in the complexity. It clears the topic up without dumbing it down. What are the chances?”
—Joel Best, author of Damned Lies and Statistics

“You can read this stuff in a prosecutorial tone of voice, if you like, as many writers on perception of risk have: Look how irrational and wrong everyone is! But the authors take a different tack—a better one. They argue ably that mathematical computations should be a buttress to our judgment but concede that computations will never, and should never, replace our judgment entirely. Of their risk-buffeted characters, they conclude: ‘We don't know how to use data to tell them how to live.' If they don't, no one does.”
—The Wall Street Journal

“A cheerfully subversive variation on the genre. Chapter by chapter … [The Norm Chronicles] does an energetic and laudable job of stretching the mind.”
—The New York Times

“They teach us how math helps us sensibly assess and manage risk. Just remember: You can crunch the numbers as much as you like, but when it comes down to any given individual, chance always plays a part.”
—The New York Times Book Review

About the Author

Michael Blastland is an author, journalist, and BBC Radio 4 broadcaster. He is the author of, with Andrew Dilnot, the popular math books The Tiger that Isn't and The Numbers Game, as well as the memoir The Only Boy in the World.

David Spiegelhalter, OBE, is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge. He is a fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge, and the Royal Society.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Basic Books; Illustrated edition (June 3 2014)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 384 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0465085709
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0465085705
Item weight ‏ : ‎ 386 g
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 13.97 x 2.44 x 20.96 cm

Best Sellers Rank: #402,607 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #144 in Statistics
- #270 in Financial Economic Statistics
- #271 in Economic Statistics (Books)

Customer Reviews:
155 ratings

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David Spiegelhalter
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Customer reviews

4.1 out of 5

155 global ratings

5 star		48%
4 star		26%
3 star		17%
2 star		6%
1 star		3%

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Top reviews from Canada

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Teresa L Osiowy

Five Stars

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on October 2, 2015

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A very interesting and entertaining look at statistics...and more.

Helpful

Reader Writer Runner

More Bookish Thoughts...

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on October 5, 2014

We worry about fat and carbs, disease and antibiotics, saving money and paying the mortgage. Then we worry that we worry too much. Journalist Michael Blastland and statistician David Spiegelhalter do not purport to put our minds at rest with their new book but they do shed light on the highs and lows of risk: how many children drown every year? Does fishing or mining pose a greater hazard? Will you arrive alive if you take a car or an airplane?

Thankfully, the authors go beyond bombardment with tables and charts. They convey quantities in charming measurements: acute risks in MicroMorts (a one-in-a-million chance of death) and more chronic risks in MicroLives, (one-millionth of a typical life span, or about 30 minutes of existence). These common units allow for easy comparison and make sense of the fact that undergoing general anesthesia (a risk of 5 MicroMorts) equates to 1,200 miles of driving in the U.S. Smoking a pack a day eats up 10 MicroLives daily, 10 times as much as a couple of hours watching TV.

By virtue, "The Norm Chronicles" makes heavy use of numbers but the authors remain appropriately aware of the danger in carelessly slinging statistics. They assert that our minds don't think of dangers as numbers but rather as stories. Thus, the book cleverly alternates segments of statistical explanation with tales of three characters: risk-averse Prudence, daredevil Kelvin and the protagonist of the book, Norm, who embodies the median of every statistical category.

Readers follow Norm, Kelvin and Pru as they encounter life's various risks. Through their stories, we learn fascinating facts: ecstasy (the drug) carries a roughly equal risk to equasy (the practice of horse riding). The number of MicroMorts we incur when driving a car tops the charts whereas the chance of dying on a plane is next to nil. So why do we sweat and stress on takeoff while mindlessly pulling out of our garages? One could certainly interpret a prosecutorial tone in these statistics but, more productively, readers can learn to buttress their judgment here while remembering that numbers can never replace judgment entirely.

Helpful

George Poirier

Risk Perception: More of Mind than of Math

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on June 17, 2014

In twenty-seven chapters the authors discuss various aspects of risk in our daily lives – from birth to old age. One such topic is addressed per chapter. Each chapter begins with a page or two of fiction in which the same characters interact in some situation that helps to introduce the reader to the particular topic about to be discussed.

Although many numbers are quoted in this book – including some on probability - no actual math is presented regarding how they were derived. The reason for this is that in most cases, the numbers were quoted from tabulations, e.g., number of people of a certain age group killed due to some activity in a certain country in a certain time period. Much space is devoted towards psychology, perception, mind games, etc., pertaining to various risks. Number comparisons are consistently made between the United Kingdom and the USA.

I found this book to contain a lot of information. I did have a bit of trouble following some of the fictional sections at the beginning of the chapters, i.e., several terms and phrases used were much more British than North American thus requiring me to re-read several paragraphs (while scratching my head). Otherwise, the prose is clear, friendly, lively and engaging.

This book can be enjoyed by any interested reader in search of risk-related data. However, I believe that psychology enthusiasts may wind up enjoying it the most.

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

StephenDS

Health Authorities, and you, take note.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on January 13, 2021

Verified Purchase

This book respects the way humans assess risk, by showing how and why it often contrasts dramatically with a statistical calculation of the exact same risk. Along the way it brings out that humans often give weight to the severity of a possible outcome, which is completely ignored in a statistical calculation of risk. This difference accounts for many apparent illogical responses to relative danger. Think innoculation, flying, taking drugs, etc.
The authors try to embody certain bundles of attitude by creating a few representative "risk personalities" to span from the ultra prudent, through the Norm, hence the book's title, and onto the happy go lucky stance. And the authors have done an excellent job in dredging through news reports of actual incidents to illustrate the points they are explaining.
While this approach has drawbacks. I sometimes found the introductory part of a new section confusing. It is worthwhile overall because it unsettles the over-scientific amongst us, i.e. ME!, and points to important considerations that public health authorities ought to take into account when explaining their work to the general public. So, it is an important read in times of a pandemic.

ACB(swansea)

Risks, Coincidences or Realism

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on June 26, 2013

Verified Purchase

Norm, Prudence and Kelvin are the names around this excellent and balanced account of the sensational risk factors that we read about incessantly. They, of course, represent stability (Norm), obsession with panic and danger (Prudence), and carefree Kelvin. Beyond these figures that are instantly recognisable is a concise and realistic review of the numbers game. Relative risk; 20%, 1:5 chance of increasing chances of cancer with a daily fry-up sounds sensational, balanced against the absolute risk of 0.25% 1:400. I'm not promoting grease but illustrating how statistics can be manipulated for dramatic presentation. Norm may be a regular guy who will live his life to expectation, Prudence may consider every 1 in a million chance will be her fate, whilst Kelvin is daredevil; marathon running kills as many as sky-diving.

Michael Blastland and David Spiegelhalter delineate many comparisons of hazards that put life and risk profiles into realistic terms. Winning the jackpot on the national lottery is 14 million to one. The odds are similar from dying minutes after buying the ticket. This no way denigrates the lifestyle improvements that can be made that are known and evidence based. It is a lesson of how percentages, statistics and scares can be manipulated without analysing the real figures. In the end, 'you pays yer money and takes yer chance'. Entertainingly written and full of factual and humorous notations, it is somehow comforting to know what the 'true' odds are. The authors extend their findings across many fields. Recommended and thoroughly enjoyable. It may sound daunting but is surprisingly an easy read thanks to the publishing team. (Kindle not paperback presentation).

22 people found this helpful

ROBIN

Original, Qwerky, very British

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on March 18, 2021

Verified Purchase

An original concept of introducing characters but sometimes difficult to read and feels like a textbook in parts. The British school-boy humour works on some occasions but not on others. Full of interesting UK facts and figures and you will learn something. For me, the original concept fails to fully ignite and gel and I guess that's why not many authors have used it. Overall, it's the kind of book I might expect from a British statistician attempting to be funny. Good effort. But no cigar.

Damaskcat

The Norm Chronicles

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on October 26, 2013

Verified Purchase

I am interested in the different ways in which individuals assess risk and found this book fascinating reading. The risks in various everyday situations are illustrated by imaginary scenarios featuring Norm - Mr Average; Prudence - ultra cautious and Kevin/Kelvin and variations who see no risk in anything or choose to ignore the risks which others would take seriously.

My perception is that many people overestimate the risks of many things and underestimate the risks of things which they regard as safe. Health screening is a typical example of the latter and there are some interesting charts and diagrams in this book which appear to show that health screening may expose you to greater risks than not being screened.

If you want to know whether there is a risk of being hit by an asteroid, having something, or someone fall on you out of an aeroplane, dying in a plane crash, receiving a fatal dose of radiation, being killed or injured in a road accident, developing cancer or being adversely affected by the mobile phone mast at the end of the road then this is the book for you. But you might end up surprised and disturbed by many of the figures.

The book shows how human beings can incorrectly assess risk because of the fear factor. We find it difficult to separate our emotions from the real facts and figures. Headline news of four stabbings in a small area on the same day provoke alarm and fear and the perception that violent crime is increasing when in fact it is falling and the four cases are a statistical anomaly.

The book is written in an amusing and light hearted way but it does have a serious message to convey - that we need to look at the real figures behind the headline scare stories before we pack our bags and move into a nuclear bunker. The book has notes on each chapter and an index.

3 people found this helpful

Liam Kelleher

Pop Science at its best

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on May 16, 2015

Verified Purchase

In essence if you like the style of writing in Galdwells books or Freakononimcs etc then this book is certainly for you. However this book actually lords over both those books in terms of wit and information. The anecdotal story commencing each chapter sheds light and laughter on the serious subject matter of each chapter which includes a cohort of information on risk in many aspects of life including hospitals, medicine, radiation, likelihood of being murdered, travel etc.

Spiegelgalter and Blastland expose many fallacies, particularly in the field of the medicine where the statistical evidence for statins and the many tabloid health stories are called into suspect. Indeed I was rather amazed that a CT scan was the equivalent of being 2.5km from the centre of a atomic bomb. Furthermore the delusional dangers of flying are compared with the statistical evidence of cycling down to the local shops or riding on your motorbike.

This book has a host of information and references that is sure to stir your interest in the subject and indeed will make you question the facts and figures thrown at in headlines days in and day out. Its also nice to read a book written by someone from the UK where many of the stats and subject matter are more relevant to UK readers. Great book.

One person found this helpful

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