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David Spiegelhalter

D. J. Spiegelhalter

The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death MP3 CD – MP3 Audio, May 17 2016

by David Spiegelhalter (Author), Michael Blastland (Author), Angelo Di Loreto (Reader)

155 ratings

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Is it safer to fly or take the train? How dangerous is skydiving? And is eating that extra sausage going to kill you? We've all heard the statistics for risky activities, but what do they mean in the real world? In The Norm Chronicles, journalist Michael Blastland and risk expert David Spiegelhalter explore these questions through the stories of average Norm and an ingenious measurement called the MicroMorta - a one-in-a-million chance of dying. They reveal why general anesthesia is as dangerous as a parachute jump, giving birth in the US is nearly twice as risky as in the UK, and that the radiation from eating a banana shaves three seconds off your life. An entertaining guide to the statistics of personal risk, The Norm Chronicles will enlighten anyone who has ever worried about the dangers we encounter in our daily lives.

Language

English
Publisher

Audible Studios on Brilliance Audio
Publication date

May 17 2016
Dimensions

16.51 x 1.59 x 13.97 cm
ISBN-10

1522605827
ISBN-13

978-1522605829
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Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Audible Studios on Brilliance Audio; Unabridged edition (May 17 2016)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1522605827
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1522605829
Item weight ‏ : ‎ 99 g
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 16.51 x 1.59 x 13.97 cm

Customer Reviews:
155 ratings

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David Spiegelhalter
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D. J. Spiegelhalter
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4.1 out of 5

155 global ratings

5 star		48%
4 star		26%
3 star		17%
2 star		6%
1 star		3%

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Teresa L Osiowy

Five Stars

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on October 2, 2015

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A very interesting and entertaining look at statistics...and more.

Helpful

Reader Writer Runner

More Bookish Thoughts...

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on October 5, 2014

We worry about fat and carbs, disease and antibiotics, saving money and paying the mortgage. Then we worry that we worry too much. Journalist Michael Blastland and statistician David Spiegelhalter do not purport to put our minds at rest with their new book but they do shed light on the highs and lows of risk: how many children drown every year? Does fishing or mining pose a greater hazard? Will you arrive alive if you take a car or an airplane?

Thankfully, the authors go beyond bombardment with tables and charts. They convey quantities in charming measurements: acute risks in MicroMorts (a one-in-a-million chance of death) and more chronic risks in MicroLives, (one-millionth of a typical life span, or about 30 minutes of existence). These common units allow for easy comparison and make sense of the fact that undergoing general anesthesia (a risk of 5 MicroMorts) equates to 1,200 miles of driving in the U.S. Smoking a pack a day eats up 10 MicroLives daily, 10 times as much as a couple of hours watching TV.

By virtue, "The Norm Chronicles" makes heavy use of numbers but the authors remain appropriately aware of the danger in carelessly slinging statistics. They assert that our minds don't think of dangers as numbers but rather as stories. Thus, the book cleverly alternates segments of statistical explanation with tales of three characters: risk-averse Prudence, daredevil Kelvin and the protagonist of the book, Norm, who embodies the median of every statistical category.

Readers follow Norm, Kelvin and Pru as they encounter life's various risks. Through their stories, we learn fascinating facts: ecstasy (the drug) carries a roughly equal risk to equasy (the practice of horse riding). The number of MicroMorts we incur when driving a car tops the charts whereas the chance of dying on a plane is next to nil. So why do we sweat and stress on takeoff while mindlessly pulling out of our garages? One could certainly interpret a prosecutorial tone in these statistics but, more productively, readers can learn to buttress their judgment here while remembering that numbers can never replace judgment entirely.

Helpful

George Poirier

Risk Perception: More of Mind than of Math

Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on June 17, 2014

In twenty-seven chapters the authors discuss various aspects of risk in our daily lives – from birth to old age. One such topic is addressed per chapter. Each chapter begins with a page or two of fiction in which the same characters interact in some situation that helps to introduce the reader to the particular topic about to be discussed.

Although many numbers are quoted in this book – including some on probability - no actual math is presented regarding how they were derived. The reason for this is that in most cases, the numbers were quoted from tabulations, e.g., number of people of a certain age group killed due to some activity in a certain country in a certain time period. Much space is devoted towards psychology, perception, mind games, etc., pertaining to various risks. Number comparisons are consistently made between the United Kingdom and the USA.

I found this book to contain a lot of information. I did have a bit of trouble following some of the fictional sections at the beginning of the chapters, i.e., several terms and phrases used were much more British than North American thus requiring me to re-read several paragraphs (while scratching my head). Otherwise, the prose is clear, friendly, lively and engaging.

This book can be enjoyed by any interested reader in search of risk-related data. However, I believe that psychology enthusiasts may wind up enjoying it the most.

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

StephenDS

Health Authorities, and you, take note.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on January 13, 2021

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This book respects the way humans assess risk, by showing how and why it often contrasts dramatically with a statistical calculation of the exact same risk. Along the way it brings out that humans often give weight to the severity of a possible outcome, which is completely ignored in a statistical calculation of risk. This difference accounts for many apparent illogical responses to relative danger. Think innoculation, flying, taking drugs, etc.
The authors try to embody certain bundles of attitude by creating a few representative "risk personalities" to span from the ultra prudent, through the Norm, hence the book's title, and onto the happy go lucky stance. And the authors have done an excellent job in dredging through news reports of actual incidents to illustrate the points they are explaining.
While this approach has drawbacks. I sometimes found the introductory part of a new section confusing. It is worthwhile overall because it unsettles the over-scientific amongst us, i.e. ME!, and points to important considerations that public health authorities ought to take into account when explaining their work to the general public. So, it is an important read in times of a pandemic.

ACB(swansea)

Risks, Coincidences or Realism

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on June 26, 2013

Verified Purchase

Norm, Prudence and Kelvin are the names around this excellent and balanced account of the sensational risk factors that we read about incessantly. They, of course, represent stability (Norm), obsession with panic and danger (Prudence), and carefree Kelvin. Beyond these figures that are instantly recognisable is a concise and realistic review of the numbers game. Relative risk; 20%, 1:5 chance of increasing chances of cancer with a daily fry-up sounds sensational, balanced against the absolute risk of 0.25% 1:400. I'm not promoting grease but illustrating how statistics can be manipulated for dramatic presentation. Norm may be a regular guy who will live his life to expectation, Prudence may consider every 1 in a million chance will be her fate, whilst Kelvin is daredevil; marathon running kills as many as sky-diving.

Michael Blastland and David Spiegelhalter delineate many comparisons of hazards that put life and risk profiles into realistic terms. Winning the jackpot on the national lottery is 14 million to one. The odds are similar from dying minutes after buying the ticket. This no way denigrates the lifestyle improvements that can be made that are known and evidence based. It is a lesson of how percentages, statistics and scares can be manipulated without analysing the real figures. In the end, 'you pays yer money and takes yer chance'. Entertainingly written and full of factual and humorous notations, it is somehow comforting to know what the 'true' odds are. The authors extend their findings across many fields. Recommended and thoroughly enjoyable. It may sound daunting but is surprisingly an easy read thanks to the publishing team. (Kindle not paperback presentation).

22 people found this helpful

ROBIN

Original, Qwerky, very British

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on March 18, 2021

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An original concept of introducing characters but sometimes difficult to read and feels like a textbook in parts. The British school-boy humour works on some occasions but not on others. Full of interesting UK facts and figures and you will learn something. For me, the original concept fails to fully ignite and gel and I guess that's why not many authors have used it. Overall, it's the kind of book I might expect from a British statistician attempting to be funny. Good effort. But no cigar.

Damaskcat

The Norm Chronicles

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on October 26, 2013

Verified Purchase

I am interested in the different ways in which individuals assess risk and found this book fascinating reading. The risks in various everyday situations are illustrated by imaginary scenarios featuring Norm - Mr Average; Prudence - ultra cautious and Kevin/Kelvin and variations who see no risk in anything or choose to ignore the risks which others would take seriously.

My perception is that many people overestimate the risks of many things and underestimate the risks of things which they regard as safe. Health screening is a typical example of the latter and there are some interesting charts and diagrams in this book which appear to show that health screening may expose you to greater risks than not being screened.

If you want to know whether there is a risk of being hit by an asteroid, having something, or someone fall on you out of an aeroplane, dying in a plane crash, receiving a fatal dose of radiation, being killed or injured in a road accident, developing cancer or being adversely affected by the mobile phone mast at the end of the road then this is the book for you. But you might end up surprised and disturbed by many of the figures.

The book shows how human beings can incorrectly assess risk because of the fear factor. We find it difficult to separate our emotions from the real facts and figures. Headline news of four stabbings in a small area on the same day provoke alarm and fear and the perception that violent crime is increasing when in fact it is falling and the four cases are a statistical anomaly.

The book is written in an amusing and light hearted way but it does have a serious message to convey - that we need to look at the real figures behind the headline scare stories before we pack our bags and move into a nuclear bunker. The book has notes on each chapter and an index.

3 people found this helpful

Liam Kelleher

Pop Science at its best

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on May 16, 2015

Verified Purchase

In essence if you like the style of writing in Galdwells books or Freakononimcs etc then this book is certainly for you. However this book actually lords over both those books in terms of wit and information. The anecdotal story commencing each chapter sheds light and laughter on the serious subject matter of each chapter which includes a cohort of information on risk in many aspects of life including hospitals, medicine, radiation, likelihood of being murdered, travel etc.

Spiegelgalter and Blastland expose many fallacies, particularly in the field of the medicine where the statistical evidence for statins and the many tabloid health stories are called into suspect. Indeed I was rather amazed that a CT scan was the equivalent of being 2.5km from the centre of a atomic bomb. Furthermore the delusional dangers of flying are compared with the statistical evidence of cycling down to the local shops or riding on your motorbike.

This book has a host of information and references that is sure to stir your interest in the subject and indeed will make you question the facts and figures thrown at in headlines days in and day out. Its also nice to read a book written by someone from the UK where many of the stats and subject matter are more relevant to UK readers. Great book.

One person found this helpful

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The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death MP3 CD – MP3 Audio, May 17 2016

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Product details

About the authors

David Spiegelhalter

D. J. Spiegelhalter

Michael Blastland

Customer reviews

Top reviews from Canada

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