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Andrew Gelman

David Park

Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do - Expanded Edition Paperback – Illustrated, Dec 27 2009

by Andrew Gelman (Author)

4.4 63 ratings

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On the night of the 2000 presidential election, Americans watched on television as polling results divided the nation's map into red and blue states. Since then the color divide has become symbolic of a culture war that thrives on stereotypes--pickup-driving red-state Republicans who vote based on God, guns, and gays; and elitist blue-state Democrats woefully out of touch with heartland values. With wit and prodigious number crunching, Andrew Gelman debunks these and other political myths.

This expanded edition includes new data and easy-to-read graphics explaining the 2008 election. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State is a must-read for anyone seeking to make sense of today's fractured political landscape.

ISBN-10

0691143935
ISBN-13

978-0691143934
Edition

Revised
Publisher

Princeton University Press
Publication date

Dec 27 2009
Language

English
Dimensions

15.49 x 2.03 x 23.37 cm
Print length

276 pages
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Review

"Gelman and a group of fellow political scientists crunch numbers and draw graphs, arriving at a picture that refutes the [idea] . . . of poor red-staters voting Republican against their economic interests. Instead, Gelman persuasively argues, the poor in both red states and blue still mostly vote Democratic, and the rich, nationally speaking, overwhelmingly vote Republican."---Leo Carey, New Yorker

"Commentators on both the left and the right have theorized about why working-class Kansas farmers and latte-sipping Maryland suburbanites vote against their economic interests. . . . The real paradox, [Gelman] says, is that while rich states lean Democratic, rich people generally vote Republican; while poor states lean Republican, poor people generally vote Democratic."---Alan Cooperman, Washington Post Book World

"This is the Freakonomics-style analysis that every candidate and campaign consultant should read."---Robert Sommer, New York Observer

"Gelman works his way, state by state, to help us better understand the relationship of class, culture, and voting. The book is a terrific read and offers much insight into the changing electoral landscape."---Sudhir Venkatesh, Freakonomics blog

"[T]his book already analyzes far more data than do most. On that note, it is worth lauding another of this book's strengths: its rich graphical presentation of evidence. Its numerous figures often allow the reader to see the data and to draw one's own inferences, and they render the book accessible to those with little statistical training."---Gabriel S. Lenz, Public Opinion Quarterly

"Although the book is stronger on description than interpretation, it raises important questions and presents its findings in a clear and readable fashion that encourages replication, critique, and elaboration. . . . Red State, Blue State shows that much can be learned from applying serious quantitative analysis to popular ideas. It debunks popular misconceptions, but also reveals the limitations of most academic analyses."---David L. Weakliem, International Review of Modern Sociology

About the Author

Andrew Gelman is professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University. His books include Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks. He received the Presidents' Award in 2003, awarded each year to the best statistician under forty.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Princeton University Press; Revised edition (Dec 27 2009)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 276 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0691143935
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0691143934
Item weight ‏ : ‎ 397 g
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 15.49 x 2.03 x 23.37 cm

Best Sellers Rank: #912,906 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #279 in Statistics
- #603 in Political Parties (Books)
- #15,910 in Political Science (Books)

Customer Reviews:
4.4 63 ratings

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Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5

63 global ratings

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4 star		29%
3 star		3%
2 star		3%
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Top reviews from other countries

Nicholas Warren

Excellent book of applied statistics, but …

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on January 29, 2023

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As you would expect from as well known a statistician as Andrew German, the statistical presentation of his analysis and conclusions showing not much more than graphical illustrations is exemplary. I learned a lot about U.S. politics from reading the book.

That said, the second edition was published in 2010 and ending with the Obama election of 2008. Fascinating as it is, the book is crying out to be updated for the rest of the Obama elections and, most importantly for those of Trump and Biden.

Please, Prof. Gelman, do think of updating the book as a model of simply illustrated and explained political analysis.

S. Sherman

Important point, but underdeveloped

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on October 14, 2008

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Gelman challenges what is increasingly the cliched way of viewing American politics--latte drinking, relatively well off Democrats vs. Wal-Mart, religious, working class Republicans. He instead offers clear data that demonstrates that most people on the poorer end of the political spectrum vote for Democrats, while most wealthier people vote Republican. So why the pattern of wealthier blue states and poorer red states? In blue states, a substantial portion of wealthier people vote Democratic, while in red states, most wealthier people stick with the Republicans. Thus in blue states, income doesn't predict all that well who you are going to vote for, while in Red states it does. My first intuition, when faced with this pattern, was to presume that it could be explained in good part by race, i.e. poorer people in red states like Mississippi are often African Americans, who vote heavily Democratic. But Gelman presents evidence that this is not the entire explanation. Notwithstanding everything you may have heard, poorer whites in these states tend to vote Democratic as well (albeit not in as high numbers as African Americans). The culture/taste wars between abortion rights, gay marriage, NPR vs. megachurches and Fox news is mainly being played out among the middle class and wealthy, who are sorting themselves into red and blue counties, and Republicans and Democrats, labels which are more meaningful than they used to be regarding ones social/cultural vision for the country. This is extremely interesting and useful to know, but beyond this point (restated and turned around many times), the book does not have much depth. There is virtually no ethnographic detail, only conclusions drawn from polls (and even those aren't all that fine-grained). To his credit, Gelman examines voting patterns in Mexico as well (American social scientists, and journalists are notorious for analysing the US in a vacuum). But this chapter fails to make much of an impact. Mexico votes in a perhaps less unexpected manner--the wealthier north goes conservative, while the poorer states of the south vote for the left party; but this probably has much to do with the more substantial economic policy differences between the parties in Mexico compared to the US. There is no detailed analysis of the political evolution of particular states in the US. He also tends to leave things at wealthier and poorer voters, without looking at more specific income groups or professions, or considering factors like union membership. If you are skeptical about this analysis, or wish to be clear on how Gelman arrived at his conclusions, by all means read the book. Otherwise you can probably glean enough of the analysis from this and other customer reviews.

16 people found this helpful

Jack Lechelt

Fun and easy to read

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on December 6, 2008

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Gelman, et. al., offer the political science version of pop-social science, in the Gladwell-Freakonomics vein. They do a fine job, though not quite reaching the captivating levels of Gladwell, etc.

Since the 2000 election and the near dead even split in the electorate, the "red-blue" divide has captivated politicos. The blue states voted for Gore and Kerry, and the red states put George W. Bush in the White House. What has amazed a few people is the fact that the poor states are the red states, which seemed to fly in the face of the storyline that the poor normally vote Democratic. Why do red-poor states - those states that actually take more money from the federal government than their inhabitants pay towards the federal government - vote Republican? Some, like Thomas Frank in "What's the Matter with Kansas?," suggested that poor folks were suckered into voting Republican because Party leaders hyped social issues (abortion, gay marriage) to get the poor on board, all the while ensuring tax cuts were passed for the benefit of the wealthy. It is intriguing to note that after the better part of 30 years of time in the White House, Republicans really haven't done a great job of passing conservative social legislation, but have done a fine job with tax cuts that have largely benefited the wealthy (the wealthy do, of course, pay most of the taxes). Well, Gelman and the rest rebut Frank by pointing out that the poor do indeed - in all states - vote more for the Democratic Party than do the wealthy. Again, that is the case even in red states. Granted, there is probably a higher proportion of poor folks in red states voting Republican than they do in blue states, but even in red states the poor are more likely to vote Democratic. It's the WEALTHY who are causing the red-blue divide. That is, the wealthy are more likely to defect from their financial interests, and they do so, obviously, in the blue states. Furthermore, it is the wealthy who are arguing over social policy, and the poor are sticking to their economic interests. Most importantly for the Democratic Party, Gelman and friends point out that, contrary to the arguments of the left, Democrats would not improve electoral outcomes by becoming more liberal. Doing so will only cause more moderates to leave the Democratic Party. Still, as any Democrat has should have learned, the winning strategy is not always the chosen strategy.

Regardless, "Red State, Blue State..." is an easy to read book with plenty of citations for any reader who wants to dig deeper into the theory, methodology, and articles of serious public opinion and voting behavior scholarship.

My biggest complaints about the book aren't too big. First, the early chapters were particularly choppy and almost read as cut-and-paste efforts. Thankfully the nuggets were interesting, but the overall themes were elusive. Second, for a short book, the price is a bit steep. Don't get me wrong: I love an easy to read short book, but don't charge me a big book price for it. Otherwise, a fine job on an important issue, which may be a little less relevant now with President-electObama's impressive 2008 victory. A few missteps by him, however, and we're right back to the 49-49 split with the increased likelihood of red state led Republican victories.

6 people found this helpful

Amazon Customer

pretty dry stuff

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on November 10, 2011

Verified Purchase

If the book actually explained why people vote the way they do, it would be better. Instead, it dumps lots of data at you with some bad charts (maybe that is just Kindle at work). Indeed, some of the findings are surprising, and it is nice to see how wrong political pundits are and how superficial their analyses are. Read the publisher's description instead of the book to get the gist.

4 people found this helpful

Jeremy Miles

Analysis to make you think

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on September 4, 2008

Verified Purchase

I read this book as a psychologist who is familiar with Gelman's work in statistics, and so if this book had been written by someone else, I never would have noticed it. I thought it had a lot of great insights, and a lot of very clever ways of thinking about how to analyze political (or any) data. The book is not full of numbers, in fact I don't think there is a single table of numbers in it - everything is done with graphs.

Occasionally I would have liked more information on the analysis techniques used, but I realize I'm probably in a minority.

10 people found this helpful

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